The Chinese Communist Party is aware that the occupation of Taiwan
will lead to sanctions from the United States and EU, which in turn, will lead to a decline in the Chinese economy. In this regard, Xi Jinping is delaying the start of a military operation to occupy Taiwan, as he is confident that with the current economic situation in China, he will be able to be re-elected for the third term. But the possible fall in stock markets, which will occur according to our survey in 2022, will be one of the reasons for the start of the operation to occupy Taiwan. With this operation, Xi Jinping intends to distract Chinese citizens from economic and social problems.
In our view there are two factors that deter China:
- China, first of all, depends on the supply of semiconductors (all electrical devices from teapot to artificial satellites are equipped with semiconductors), and today, China imports about 85% of semiconductors from other countries, that is, without them, more than 65% of China’s production capacity will stop.
The Chinese government has thoroughly studied the history of Russia, namely, how it survived the sanctions imposed on it by the USA ang EU, which were imposed after Russia occupied the Ukrainian Crimea. These sanctions affected almost all sectors of the economy, but Russia quickly organized its own production of almost all the goods that were imported from the EU, the United States and Ukraine. Based on the experience of Russia, the leadership of the People’s Republic of China is currently trying to organized its own production of semiconductors in China.
- This factor is the main one for deterring China. This is the supply of oil and gas. About 70% of the oil and gas supply to China is carry out by sea. If the Chinese leadership begins an operation to occupy Taiwan, the United States and EU will impose an embargo on the supply of oil to China , which are carry out through the South China Sea and the Strait of Malaya. The military coup that has been in Myanmar this year also is not benefit to China. As a result of this coup, China is facing the threat of blocking a pipeline located in Myanmar that supplies gas and oil to China. However, the main supplier of oil and gas via the land route to China is Russia. Of course, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan also supply oil and gas to China by land, but they, unlike Russia, will stop supplying energy resources to China in the event of an embargo. According to our survey, Russia is going to increase by five times the supply of oil and gas by land to China. Also, as a result of possible sanctions against China, Russia will increase its trade turnover with China by 4 times. We believe that without Russia’s oil, gas and food aid, China will not dare to launch an operation to occupy Taiwan. That is why Russia will play a key role in the occupation of Taiwan and China’s confrontation with the USA and EU.
“Taiwanese People” Author_15.04.2021